ProphetFighting

Winners And Losers: UFC 105 Edition

The two biggest results of UFC 105 are undoubtedly Randy Couture’s reemergence in the light heavyweight division and Dan Hardy’s arrival as the #1 contender at 170 pounds, but, as usual, there were other implications down the card.  While I will reserve comment on the Brock Lesnar situation until there is more information available, there is plenty more to discuss.

In terms of Winners, one that may have flown under the radar is John Hathaway.  His unanimous decision win over Paul Taylor made him 3-0 in the UFC (and 12-0 overall).  He’s starting to make a little noise and deserves a shot at some better competition.  Alexander Gustaffson also made some noise making short work of Jared Hamman, who I thought would have the advantage based on the higher level of competition he’s faced in his career.  Also on the under card, Terry Etim appears to be handling the pressure of being compared to Anderson Silva by Joe Rogan, submitting (of all things) Shannon Gugerty; look for him to get another shot at some better competition after unsuccessful efforts in 2008.

On the main card, Matt Brown continued his run of wins and looks prime to be a future gatekeeper in the welterweight division.  It would be easy to call Dan Hardy a big winner last night, but the victory for “The Outlaw” leads him to be the proverbial lamb to slaughter when he eventually fights Georges St Pierre.  It will be interesting to see what happens in Mike Swick’s next few fights; a loss or two could really devalue Hardy’s win.

Denis Kang was clearly last night’s biggest loser.  His last big win came in 2006 versus Akhiro Gono and I wonder how long he is destined for the UFC.  Luckily for him, he’s a big star in Korea and the UFC is not his only option.

I know I’ll be called a hater for this, but I think Randy Couture was also a loser last night.  Of course, he won the fight, but the UFC planned for this fight to be his springboard to the top of the light heavyweight division.  Vera was able to defend take downs effectively and had the clear advantage in the stand up.  A quality win, for sure, but not the kind of performance that places him among the best in the world.  Possibly worst of all, the majority of the fight was extremely boring and fans could place the majority of the blame on Couture who seemed more than willing to hold Vera against the fence without inflicting any significant damage.  The Couture/UFC conundrum continues…

TAGS: Couture, UFC, UFC105, Vera

The Downside: UFC 105 and Randy Couture’s Legacy

Saturday night’s fight with Brandon Vera represents a potential inflection point for Randy Couture’s future and legacy. A loss would be three straight and I wonder if the fog of time will dim the glow that surrounds Couture. Is it possible that “The Natural” could be considered another fighter who tried to hang on?

Further, could he be remembered as coming back to the sport to challenge a particularly weak class of heavyweights? I refer specifically to Tim Sylvia and Napao Gonzaga, who two years ago were on the top of the division. Clearly, there will always be people those who defend him, but if his record ends up as 16-11 or 16-12, it’s a tough argument to win.

And finally, if he was to lose, who could Randy fight next? Can the loser of 3 consecutive bouts be a headliner?

My opinion is if he loses, he’ll retire, totally for realsies this time. I think he is aware (perhaps keenly) of his legacy and will preserve it. After all his future revenue streams- Xtreme Couture and his acting career- are dependent on it.

TAGS: Brandon Vera, Randy Couture, UFC 105

Dream12 Winners and Losers

Great night of fights. Cage was hit or miss: good for the fights, bad for the camera (especially the white mat with the HD cameras). Quick recap:

Winners:
Eddie Alvarez faced some adversity, but proved why he is one of the top lightweights in the world. He needs a rematch with Aoki in early 2010, a fight he should win.
I would have considered Kazushi Sakuraba a winner if he had just made it out of last night uninjured; I never expected him to win. Congrats and props.
Note to anyone fighting Marius Zaromskis: he’s going to kick you in the head and you’re going to sleep. His kicks come out of nowhere and he is an exciting and dangerous striker. Itching to see someone get him to the ground.

Losers:
Chase Beebe cannot blame the judging as he was on the wrong end of a highlight reel submission. 1-4 in his last 5, the former WEC champ has to reevaluate his game plan.
Zelg Galesic needs some wins; last night was a great opportunity.

More winners than losers on an overall satisfying card!

TAGS: Alvarez, Dream 12, Sakuraba, White Cage

UFC 104: Winners and Losers

Well, we all saw it… more on the sham that was Shogun and Machida later. But first, after cards I like to take a look at the real winners and losers, beyond just the results, as a wrap up.

Winners:
Joe Stevenson demonstrated that his performance against Nate Diaz was not an aberration. Greg Jackson has done wonders for him.
Anthony Johnson though he might be destined for 185, he put 2 divisions on notice tonight.
Cain Velasquez in that he made me look like an idiot, but that’s not that hard to do
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is not only “back” but he was clearly embraced by the fans. He was able to fight under total control and show that he, not Machida, could dictate the pace of the fight. He was able to abuse Machida’s legs and side and weaken him. He is a winner in the fans’ eyes and, in this sport, that can be as important as winning on the judges’ cards.

Losers:
Yushin Okami is now, well, screwed. Once, he was next in line, then he got injured, it became clear that he was not marketable, and now gets schooled by Chael Sonnen. The UFC now has little reason to promote him, and one has to wonder if he’ll ever see a main card in the organization again.
Lyoto Machida obviously. He was exposed, if only somewhat. He appeared frustrated at times and his power was sapped by the vicious body and leg attack from Shogun. The UFC light heavyweight division is even more chaos than anticipated, somehow.
But, the biggest losers tonight were all MMA fans, fighters, writers, promoters, referees, good judges and even sponsors. Demonstrably bad decisions are bad for the sport in every regard. Reform is needed, and it has been ignored for too long by the powers that be.

TAGS: Machida, Robbery, Shogun, UFC 104

UFC 104 Main Card Quick Picks

UFC 104 has some interesting match ups with some enticing lines for those who seek to wager some cash on underdogs.

Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio Shogun Rua
*Bias alert! I’m a huge Shogun mark, so let’s get that out of the way immediately. However, there is some UFC hype built into this line. It is my belief that an in shape Shogun can beat anyone in the division. More specifically, if Shogun can counter with some vicious leg kicks early on Machida’s plant leg, he can slow Machida down and mitigate some of the effectiveness of his attack. Then, he would be able to engage in the clinch and hopefully get the fight to the ground. As opposed to his fight with Tito Ortiz, Machida undoubtedly has been training to combat submissions, but many overlook Shogun’s ground skills. I think that the book makers have built into the line an assumption that if Machida is able to drag the fight into the later rounds, Shogun will gas. That may be true, but there is little doubt that the UFC’s branding of the champ as “unbeatable” has inflated the line as well. I’m putting some money down on Shogun, but if you put a gun against my head and told me to pick, I’d probably go with Machida.

Cain Velasquez vs Ben Rothwell
This fight is a great example of how UFC hype can distort a line. On one hand, you have the 6-0 Velasquez who has a big win over Cheik Kongo, and on the other you have the 30-6 Rothwell who is remembered most for a loss to Andrei Arlovski. Velasquez is the big favorite, but I don’t see why. Arlovski is probably the best boxer in the heavyweight division and he showed it against Rothwell; Ben will not be threatened in the same way with Velasquez. Could Velasquez take him down and pound him out? Sure. But it’s far from guaranteed. This fight is closer to a tossup than a rout and I’m leaning towards Rothwell leaving Dana White pouting while hurting and eventually out-pointing Velasquez.

Anthony Johnson vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida
I can’t argue with the line here: “Rumble” should overwhelm Yoshida with his power; looking for a second round TKO with Yoshida showing his heart and recuperative abilities in the first.

Spencer Fisher vs Joe Stevenson
Stevenson is the favorite here and that makes sense considering his last performance against Nate Diaz. Greg Jackson works wonders for his fighters, particularly those who need to tweak their games. Joe should be able to control Fisher and avoid his submission attempts from the bottom to ride out a unanimous decision.

Josh Neer vs Gleison Tibau
I’d say I like “The Dentist” here, but I hate going to the dentist, so I’ll just say I like Neer to win. However, this fight has all the signs of a decision as Tibau should be able to avoid submission attempts.

TAGS: Machida, Shogun, UFC, UFC104

Inertia in the UFC Light Heavyweight Division

When Forrest Griffin upset Quentin Rampage Jackson at UFC 86, the light heavyweight division was thrown into turmoil. Griffin, the Ultimate Fighter winner considered by some more of a reality show star than a champion, had a rather unremarkable post-TUF UFC career coming into his bout with Mauricio Shogun Rua at UFC 76. His controversial loss to Tito Ortiz was heralded as a greater boon to his career than any of his UFC wins over fighters such as Bill Mahood and Elvis Sinosic. But suddenly, with a win over a Shogun who was hobbled after knee surgeries, Griffin was pushed by the UFC brass as a top 205 pounder, ready to take on the consensus #1 light heavyweight in the world, Rampage Jackson.

After what this author would consider a dubious decision, Griffin was awarded the belt. When he was pounded out by Rashad Evans, it was not a tremendous surprise. Evans’ career, after all, mirrored that of Griffin’s: TUF champion whose post-TUF career was highlighted by a controversial fight with Ortiz (scored a draw after Tito had a point taken from him), a tough decision over Michael Bisping who moved down in weight afterwards and a win over a fallen champion (Chuck Lidell). Evans’ inability to defend the title was also unsurprising: he was overmatched by Lyoto Machida whose UFC career was also catapulted by a fight with Tito Ortiz (a unanimous decision win).

What is interesting about the sequence of events described above is the transitory nature of the title in what is considered the marquee division in the UFC. Whereas the division was once a de facto hierarchy in which Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture and Chuck Lidell fought each other multiple times, only relinquishing the belt to each other, the title and title shots have become window dressing for the UFC. The depth of the division, and therefore the well from which Joe Silva and Dana White have to choose contenders, is unquestionably a good thing. But having so many talented fighters in one division leads to the opportunity to cherry pick the most marketable ones, such as Forrest Griffin. The UFC had the opportunity to reestablish the preeminence of the light heavyweight division by making it worth Rampage Jackson’s while to eschew his rivalry with Rashad Evans and take on Machida, but the company made its priorities clear by having Rampage coach on season 10 of TUF: cashing in on more reality TV, regardless of the quality of the competition, was more important than its premiere division’s championship.

At UFC 104, either Lyoto Machida will defend his belt or Shogun will take it and the trend of transitory champions will continue. Either way, the columns by UFC apologists are already written. If Machida wins, he’ll be hailed as the best pound for pound fighter in the world. At the same time- regardless of the apparent contradiction- Shogun will be called overrated and a contender due to only the luck of the draw. If Shogun wins the upset, Machida will be called overrated and the headlines will declare that “Shogun is back!”. Those same writers, of course, will not be questioned about their articles asking if Shogun could win without soccer kicks. But in the end, little will be answered. Regardless of who wins, his next fight will likely not be against Rampage. Perhaps the winner will be the one to defend his belt several times and engage in several battles with top competitors, but there is little that demonstrates to me that the long term viability of the division will be put before short term publicity stunts.

Lyoto Machida in his contest with Ortiz

TAGS: Machida, Rua, Shogun, UFC, UFC 104

The Ultimate Fighter Week 5 review and podcast

Just posted at THE SAVAGE SCIENCE–Mike Wilkerson’s review of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Heavyweights’ Episode 5 plus his recap podcast.

The Ultimate Fighter Week 5 review and podcast

Don’t miss their live UFC 104 coverage Saturday, October 24th

Bet on NFL football at Sports-1 Sportsbook

Best ring entrances ever compilation

The Savage Science has a compilation of 10 of the best MMA ring entrances ever. It includes this Akihiro Gono classic:

10 of the best MMA ring entrances ever

You can also follow UFC 103 live at SavSci

Josh Barnett to fight Antonio Silva in Sengoku?

The Savage Science is reporting that Josh Barnett is tentatively slated to face the winner of next month’s fight between Antonio Silva and Jim York. The fight would be for Sengoku’s heavyweight title. Barnett hasn’t had much to say since his positive drug test in late July, though he has wrestled in Japan for Antonio Inoki’s IGF promotion:

Josh Barnett to fight at Sengoku in November?

Here’s a vintage Barnett ring entrance from PRIDE:

UFC 103 play by play results at The Savage Science

The Savage Science will have full UFC 103 coverage, including UFC 103 live play by play results. Check ‘em out!

UFC 103 @ The Savage Science