ProphetFighting

UFC 104 Main Card Quick Picks

UFC 104 has some interesting match ups with some enticing lines for those who seek to wager some cash on underdogs.

Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio Shogun Rua
*Bias alert! I’m a huge Shogun mark, so let’s get that out of the way immediately. However, there is some UFC hype built into this line. It is my belief that an in shape Shogun can beat anyone in the division. More specifically, if Shogun can counter with some vicious leg kicks early on Machida’s plant leg, he can slow Machida down and mitigate some of the effectiveness of his attack. Then, he would be able to engage in the clinch and hopefully get the fight to the ground. As opposed to his fight with Tito Ortiz, Machida undoubtedly has been training to combat submissions, but many overlook Shogun’s ground skills. I think that the book makers have built into the line an assumption that if Machida is able to drag the fight into the later rounds, Shogun will gas. That may be true, but there is little doubt that the UFC’s branding of the champ as “unbeatable” has inflated the line as well. I’m putting some money down on Shogun, but if you put a gun against my head and told me to pick, I’d probably go with Machida.

Cain Velasquez vs Ben Rothwell
This fight is a great example of how UFC hype can distort a line. On one hand, you have the 6-0 Velasquez who has a big win over Cheik Kongo, and on the other you have the 30-6 Rothwell who is remembered most for a loss to Andrei Arlovski. Velasquez is the big favorite, but I don’t see why. Arlovski is probably the best boxer in the heavyweight division and he showed it against Rothwell; Ben will not be threatened in the same way with Velasquez. Could Velasquez take him down and pound him out? Sure. But it’s far from guaranteed. This fight is closer to a tossup than a rout and I’m leaning towards Rothwell leaving Dana White pouting while hurting and eventually out-pointing Velasquez.

Anthony Johnson vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida
I can’t argue with the line here: “Rumble” should overwhelm Yoshida with his power; looking for a second round TKO with Yoshida showing his heart and recuperative abilities in the first.

Spencer Fisher vs Joe Stevenson
Stevenson is the favorite here and that makes sense considering his last performance against Nate Diaz. Greg Jackson works wonders for his fighters, particularly those who need to tweak their games. Joe should be able to control Fisher and avoid his submission attempts from the bottom to ride out a unanimous decision.

Josh Neer vs Gleison Tibau
I’d say I like “The Dentist” here, but I hate going to the dentist, so I’ll just say I like Neer to win. However, this fight has all the signs of a decision as Tibau should be able to avoid submission attempts.

Tags: Machida, Shogun, UFC, UFC104

Inertia in the UFC Light Heavyweight Division

When Forrest Griffin upset Quentin Rampage Jackson at UFC 86, the light heavyweight division was thrown into turmoil. Griffin, the Ultimate Fighter winner considered by some more of a reality show star than a champion, had a rather unremarkable post-TUF UFC career coming into his bout with Mauricio Shogun Rua at UFC 76. His controversial loss to Tito Ortiz was heralded as a greater boon to his career than any of his UFC wins over fighters such as Bill Mahood and Elvis Sinosic. But suddenly, with a win over a Shogun who was hobbled after knee surgeries, Griffin was pushed by the UFC brass as a top 205 pounder, ready to take on the consensus #1 light heavyweight in the world, Rampage Jackson.

After what this author would consider a dubious decision, Griffin was awarded the belt. When he was pounded out by Rashad Evans, it was not a tremendous surprise. Evans’ career, after all, mirrored that of Griffin’s: TUF champion whose post-TUF career was highlighted by a controversial fight with Ortiz (scored a draw after Tito had a point taken from him), a tough decision over Michael Bisping who moved down in weight afterwards and a win over a fallen champion (Chuck Lidell). Evans’ inability to defend the title was also unsurprising: he was overmatched by Lyoto Machida whose UFC career was also catapulted by a fight with Tito Ortiz (a unanimous decision win).

What is interesting about the sequence of events described above is the transitory nature of the title in what is considered the marquee division in the UFC. Whereas the division was once a de facto hierarchy in which Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture and Chuck Lidell fought each other multiple times, only relinquishing the belt to each other, the title and title shots have become window dressing for the UFC. The depth of the division, and therefore the well from which Joe Silva and Dana White have to choose contenders, is unquestionably a good thing. But having so many talented fighters in one division leads to the opportunity to cherry pick the most marketable ones, such as Forrest Griffin. The UFC had the opportunity to reestablish the preeminence of the light heavyweight division by making it worth Rampage Jackson’s while to eschew his rivalry with Rashad Evans and take on Machida, but the company made its priorities clear by having Rampage coach on season 10 of TUF: cashing in on more reality TV, regardless of the quality of the competition, was more important than its premiere division’s championship.

At UFC 104, either Lyoto Machida will defend his belt or Shogun will take it and the trend of transitory champions will continue. Either way, the columns by UFC apologists are already written. If Machida wins, he’ll be hailed as the best pound for pound fighter in the world. At the same time- regardless of the apparent contradiction- Shogun will be called overrated and a contender due to only the luck of the draw. If Shogun wins the upset, Machida will be called overrated and the headlines will declare that “Shogun is back!”. Those same writers, of course, will not be questioned about their articles asking if Shogun could win without soccer kicks. But in the end, little will be answered. Regardless of who wins, his next fight will likely not be against Rampage. Perhaps the winner will be the one to defend his belt several times and engage in several battles with top competitors, but there is little that demonstrates to me that the long term viability of the division will be put before short term publicity stunts.

Lyoto Machida in his contest with Ortiz

Tags: Machida, Rua, Shogun, UFC, UFC 104

The Ultimate Fighter Week 5 review and podcast

Just posted at THE SAVAGE SCIENCE–Mike Wilkerson’s review of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Heavyweights’ Episode 5 plus his recap podcast.

The Ultimate Fighter Week 5 review and podcast

Don’t miss their live UFC 104 coverage Saturday, October 24th

Bet on NFL football at Sports-1 Sportsbook

UFC 103 play by play results at The Savage Science

The Savage Science will have full UFC 103 coverage, including UFC 103 live play by play results. Check ‘em out!

UFC 103 @ The Savage Science

UFC 102 recap

UFC 102 is in the books and you can read all about UFC 102 and get all the UFC 102 resultsat THE SAVAGE SCIENCE

UFC 102: BIG NOG IS BACK @ THE SAVAGE SCIENCE

Shane Carwin vs. Brock Lesnar at UFC 106

Shane Carwin will face Brock Lesnar for the UFC heavyweight title at UFC 106. The Savage Science previews the matchup:

Shane Carwin to challenge Brock Lesnar at UFC 106 @ THE SAVAGE SCIENCE

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BJ Penn beats Kenny Florian in UFC 101 main event

Just posted–The Savage Science recap of BJ Penn’s victory over Kenny Florian in the main event of UFC 101:

UFC 101: PENN STOPS FLORIAN TO RETAIN TITLE @ THE SAVAGE SCIENCE

The Savage Science is your source for UFC news, MMA news plus the best MMA blog. Go check it out!

Silva smashes Griffin at UFC 101

The Savage Science has just posted their recap of Anderson Silva’s big KO win over Forrest Griffin at UFC 101:

Silva smashes Griffin at UFC 101 @ The Savage Science

UFC 101 live play by play coverage

The Savage Science presents live coverage of UFC 101: DECLARATION from Philadelphia, PA!! UFC 101 features a lightweight title defense by BJ Penn against the tough challenge of Kenny Florian!! THE SAVAGE SCIENCE brings you the BEST live fight coverage in the world–August 8, 2009 7 PM Pacific/10 PM Eastern!

UFC 101 live coverage @ The Savage Science

Alan Belcher’s tattoo at SAVSCI

Everyone is interested in Alan Belcher’s tattoo today, and The Savage Science has a big feature on it.

Alan Belcher tattoo @ THE SAVAGE SCIENCE