ProphetFighting

Kimbo v. Tank Elite XC preview at BetWWX

I’ve got another preview up at BetWWX, this one on the EliteXC main event featuring Kimbo Slice v. Tank Abbott:

Many casual MMA fans—at least here in the US—have a strange perspective on self proclaimed “street fighter” Tank Abbott. More specifically, they have the erroneous concept that he’s somehow one of the baddest dudes on the planet. It’s similar to how the casual Mike Tyson fan insists that in his prime “Iron Mike” could have whipped Muhammad Ali and Joe Louis at the same time with one hand tied behind his back. You’d be amazed how much time I spend responding to suggestions that Ali would fall victim to a early Tyson KO (despite never being KO’d in his entire career) or that “The Greatest” never tasted power like “Iron Mike’s” (ignoring the names Liston, Shavers, Foreman and Frazier on Ali’s resume). Ever since the Kimbo Slice vs. Tank Abbott fight was first proposed last June I’ve heard all sorts of crazy talk suggesting that Kimbo is somehow in over his head here. How casual fans could react with a yawn when Kimbo stopped a legit former world’s heavyweight boxing champion in Ray Mercer in just over a minute, but think he’s “stepping up in class” with Tank Abbott is beyond me.

And you know you’ll have to go over there to read the whole thing…

EliteXC Street Certified: Kimbo vs Tank Final Thoughts @ BetWWX

[tags]sports betting, MMA betting, Kimbo Slice, Tank Abbott, BetWWX, EliteXC, MMA, mixed martial arts, Showtime[/tags]

More EliteXC MMA betting advice at BetWWX

I’ve got another underdog play on Saturday’s EliteXC card with analysis up at BetWWX :

Like virtually all serious sports wagering, betting MMA is all about finding value. If you bet on “undervalued” fighters and against “overvalued” fighters over the long run you’ll make money. The biggest mistake that neophyte sports gamblers make is thinking that serious handicapping is all about teams, players, injuries and matchups. The reality is that those are simply components of what serious sports handicapping is really about: it’s all about numbers.

The beautiful thing about betting moneyline underdogs is that you drastically lower the breakeven percentage you need to surpass in order to show a profit. Most people understand the basics of the breakeven percentage—at +100 (even money) if you win more than 50% of your wagers you’ll show a profit. If you’re laying the 11/10 (-110) required for most pointspread wagers you need to win more than 52.4% of the time to stay in the black. Nevertheless, its funny how many “chalk eaters” who’ll gladly throw down -200 or more on what they perceive to be a “sure thing” don’t understand this concept. If you’re betting a -200 favorite you have to win more than 66.7% of the time to turn a profit. That’s why when you make the decision to “lay the wood” you need to make damn sure you’re getting quality for the “high price” you’re paying.

Go to BetWWX to read the rest…

Jim’s MMA Plays on Saturday Night’s Elite XC MMA Part 2 @ BetWWX.com

[tags]MMA, mixed martial arts, EliteXC, BetWWX, sports betting, MMA betting, free plays, sports betting tips, betting advice, ProphetFighting[/tags]

EliteXC MMA betting advice at BetWWX

I’ve got a preview of Saturday’s EliteXC event to be broadcast on Showtime here in the US along with a nice underdog wager up now at BetWWX:

MMA wagering frequently offers good value opportunities—in fact, there may be more “bad lines” posted on MMA than any other sport at the moment. The reasons for this are fairly obvious in that linesmakers are not only dealing with a “new” sport but very chaotic new sport at that. Upsets abound in mixed martial arts, making it more difficult to set an accurate line on fights. Additionally, once you get below the top 20 or so fighters in the world there’s a lot of parity. This is compounded by the fact that there’s not a clear cut “career path” for young fighters to take as they work their way up the ranks. Top tier MMA fighters have come from traditional martial arts, amateur wrestling, pro wrestling and—in the case of Kimbo Slice, one of the headliners on this weekend’s EliteXC event to be broadcast on Showtime in the US—videotaped street fights that became an Internet phenomenon on YouTube.

MMA Betting: EliteXC Preview and Picks @ BetWWX.com

[tags]MMA, mixed martial arts, sports betting, MMA betting, Elite XC, Kimbo Slice, BetWWX, ProphetFighting[/tags]

Money coming in on Tank Abbott v. Kimbo Slice and I can’t figure out why…

I’ve talked to some of my other sports betting cronies in the past about how we take it personally when someone bets the other side of our bets and apparently *someone* has been betting Tank Abbott against Kimbo Slice. He’s back down to -300 at Pinny after getting as high as -375. What pisses me off is that I released the play on Kimbo to my clients last week and someone has the nerve to be on the side against me. He’s still -320 at 5 Dimes (where most of my clients played it).

I’d lay -300 against Tank Abbott with any fighter on the planet (assuming they had both their arms and legs intact) and Kimbo is a monster. Its one of those fights that you really can’t make a case for the opponent–I’ve had a few people email me trying to convince me that Tank was a good value with the basic argument that “if he realizes that this could revitalize his career, and if he comes to the fight in shape, and if he does some actual BJJ training, and if Kimbo doesn’t train, and if Mercer was just a shot fighter and if this and if that” then it might be a competitive fight. My opinion is that since Tank Abbott has always *bragged* about not training, not caring about his diet or conditioning, and not even watching tape of his opponent that he ain’t going to start now. He’s kind of a “poor man’s” Mike Tyson of the MMA world–people remember him having a *lot* more power than he really ever did. He’s older than I am, not in anywhere near the shape that I am and aside from his gut really isn’t much bigger than I am. And I’d go nowhere near a cage with Kimbo Slice inside. He’s 3-13 in his L16 fights and 1-7 in his last 8, with only a rematch win over Wesley “Cabbage” Corriera to show for it. At this point in his career “Cabbage” makes “Butterbean” look like Josh Barnett. Basically, he could get away with being a one dimensional “pit fighter” back in the day but the new breed MMA fighters are playing an entirely different game. I also don’t buy the “if he wants to revitalize his career” thing–he’s got enough name recognition that he can get fights for as long as he wants. He’s like Butterbean in that regard–thanks to his success in the early days of UFC and a career in pro wrestling he’s well known among casual fans. The big secret about Tank is that he’s not got a great chin which is bad for the way he fights. If he could take a beating like Don Frye (who may be the toughest SOB in the history of MMA) I might give him a “punchers chance” but if he gets Kimbo into a standup exchange with him its not going to turn out well for him. My guess is that Kimbo will fight him much the same way he did against Mercer and Tank isn’t any better at fighting on the ground or defending submissions than the Merciless one…this looks like free money to me….

Still, its a good measuring stick and probably the kind of fighter Kimbo should be fighting at this point in his career. He *should* dominate Tank, but if he can’t he might want to think about returning to fighting rastas in vacant lots on YouTube.

[tags]sports betting, MMA, mixed martial arts, Kimbo Slice, Tank Abbott [/tags]

Prophet wagering selections on UFC 73: Stacked

NOTE–These lines have likely moved since I released them to my clients earlier today.

UFC 73: Stacked

Nate Marquardt +120 over Anderson Silva
Nate Marquardt +195 inside the distance over Anderson Silva
Marquart/Silva will NOT go the distance -270

Marquardt the better all around fighter, though Silva is a deadly striker. I like Marquardt by stoppage in the 3rd or 4th round. If he can withstand Silva’s initial striking onslaught its his fight…..

Hermes Franca +220 over Sean Sherk
Franca +450 inside the distance over Sherk
Franca/Sherk will NOT go the distance +120

Can’t understand why Sherk is getting so much respect and Franca so little. Sherk is a tough, well conditioned guy but lacks KO power with his strikes and is pretty weak with his submissions. He’s a good wrestler, so he’ll probably want to take this to the ground which is the wrong thing to do against a BJJ specialist. I can see Sherk instinctively going for a top mount and as everyone knows BJJ guys are *very* comfortable fighting from their back. Franca is a tough, unorthodox fighter who’s got good pop in his fists and excellent submission skills. He’s got more ways to win the fight, while Sherk’s best shot is to take this to a decision. I don’t see him getting that far–Hermes Franca by mid fight tap out…

Lines from 5 Dimes. Most books have lines on the individual fights, but I haven’t seen the round props anywhere else…

FWIW, I like Rashad Evans to beat Tito Ortiz by decision but no real value on betting it. Ortiz could very well benefit from a “hometown decision” since even though he’s long in the tooth he’s still a big box office draw for the UFC

[tags]UFC, UFC 73, UFC picks, UFC betting, MMA, mixed martial arts[/tags]

Betting notes on tonight’s K-1/Elite XC Dynamite card

Pinny has lines posted for the K-1/Dynamite show tonight–not much of interest from a wagering standpoint. Bookmaker.com has lines posted on everything except the main event. 5 Dimes also is taking action on the full card.

Brock Lesnar *should* dominate his replacement opponent (Min Soo Kim) but I don’t want to lay -700 with a guy making his MMA debut. IMO Lesnar is going to do well in the sport, and Kim–a replacement for Korean kickboxer Choi Hong Man–is made to order for him to dominate. Choi was a tough matchup, freakishly tall at 7-2 and a competent kickboxer. Kim, on the other hand, is a judo specialist who has struggled translating it to MMA with a 2-5 record. He’s got mediocre striking skills at best and will be looking to take it to the ground, where he’ll have to deal with a physically superior opponent who was a legit legend in amatuer wrestling with something like a 108-5 collegiate record, an NCAA championship, 2 Big 10 Championships and a 4 time All American. Lesnar has supposedly done well with his BJJ training and has decent submissions and has reportedly done exceptionally well learning the standup game. If he loses tonight to this opponent he really has no business in the sport, but I expect him to win easily. At -700 however I’ll just be watching…

The Royce Gracie/Sakuraba matchup does have some interest–Sakuraba became a superstar in Japan with his 90 minute win over Gracie (Royce’s corner threw in the towel due to his exhaustion) but both guys are well past their prime. Sakuraba could even be called a “shot fighter”–there’s been a lot of talk in the Japanese press that he’s putting his health at risk by continuing to fight. Gracie may be past his prime but he’s still superbly conditioned and technically as good of a ground fighter as you’ll find anywhere. He’s also a +203 dog in what probably should be a “pick’em” fight. The format of the fight is three 5 minute rounds so fatigue won’t be an issue–even if it were IMO Gracie is in the better shape of the two men now and a win here is probably more important to Gracie’s personal pride than to Sakuraba who’ll always been known as the “Gracie Killer” regardless of the outcome.

The rest of the card are essentially second tier fighters that I’m not very familiar with. Looks to me like a good opportunity to take a position on the dogs across the board. So pass in the main event, dogs everywhere else with Gracie looking like the best bet.

Betting Liddell/Jackson: The Prophet’s pick…

As most of you probably know, I’m a professional sports handicapper in my “day job”. In this entry I’ll give you the play on the Liddell/Jackson UFC main event that I’m giving to my clients, as well as provide you with some background on how serious sports handicappers evaluate a matchup like this.

We discussed the matchup in some detail when it was first announced, and there’s really nothing to add to that. Both fighters are certainly capable of winning–in fact I’d call this fight a toss up. And here’s something that none of the crooks and scam artists in the sports tout industry will tell you–I really don’t know who will win and in this situation I don’t need to. Winning sports betting–as opposed to the snake oil “locks of the year” and “100,000 star games of a lifetime” sold by the bottom feeders of the business–is not a function of picking who wins and loses. Instead, it is predicated on finding value in a wagering proposition and betting accordingly. Finding and betting value is the “buy low, sell high” of sports gambling–if you do this consistently you will make money.

First, a quick primer on what I mean by finding wagering value–we’ll use as an example a simple coin flip which obviously gives us a 50% probability of heads or tails. The “true odds” of a 50/50 proposition in terms of a moneyline would look like this:

HEADS +100
TAILS +100

The problem here is that no sportsbook that offers this line will be in business for long. That’s why books charge a “vig”–they are, in essence, taking their profits from the losers after they pay off the winners. You’ll frequently see bets on the coinflip in pro football games and they’d look something like this:

HEADS -110
TAILS -110

Since the book has now included their “vig” in the price of the proposition it no longer reflects the “true odds” of the coin flip. While heads or tails is a longterm 50/50 proposition, and +100 an accurate reflection of this proposition–in sports handicapper parlance we say that a +100 bet has a “50% theoretical breakeven”–at -110 the theoretical breakeven point becomes approximately 52.5%. That means that betting either side of the coin flip is not a good value.

As an example, lets change the numbers a little bit–lets say that a book had taken a ton of action on one side of the coin flip and was trying to attract action on the other side:

HEADS +120
TAILS -140

At -140, of course, tails is an even worse value than it was before with a theoretical break even point of 58.3%. Heads, however, is now a good value as at +120 the theoretical breakeven is a mere 45.5%. So with a coinflip having “true odds” of 50% either way, the desirability of betting “heads” at +120 is obvious. The value accrued between your 45.5% moneyline breakeven and the 50% true odds probability is called an “overlay” and simply stated you’ve just found a nice value wagering proposition.

This is essentially what successfull sports gamblers do regardless of the sport or proposition they’re wagering on. If you find situations where the “price” you’re paying to bet a proposition is better than the true probability of that proposition, you’re finding value. Obviously its a lot easier determining the “true odds” of a coinflip than it is the “true odds” of a football game or, in this case, a fight but the fundamental principle still applies. That’s why real sports handicappers spend their time analyzing statistics and calculating power ratings and not screaming on scorephones about “locks” or waving their arms around on early morning cable TV infomercials.

So let’s look at the current line on the Liddell/Jackson fight from our friends at Diamond Sportsbook International:

CHUCK LIDDELL -200
QUINTON JACKSON +165

Lines will vary from book to book, and “shopping prices” in this manner is an important component of successful sports betting. If you like Liddell, obviously you want to lay the lowest price possible to back him. Conversely if you’re looking to bet Jackson, you want to get the biggest “plus money” payback on your fighter.

So let’s look at the theoretical breakeven percentages on this matchup:

CHUCK LIDDELL 66.7%
QUINTON JACKSON 37.7%

Due to the “vig” they don’t add up to 100%. As I noted above, this fight is–in my estimation at least–a toss up. And as such, Quinton Jackson is the obvious “value side” of this proposition. If the two men fought 100 times, I’m thinking Jackson wins anywhere between 45 and 50 which makes the +165 price we’re getting with him–and the 37.7% theoretical breakeven percentage–a nice overlay. We’re paying too much of a price to bet Liddell and in this matchup this price just doesn’t look justified.

So here’s the moral to the story–in serious sports betting understanding the pricing and the math is just as important as understanding the matchup on the field or in the ring. I don’t know who will win tonight–but I do know that Jackson is a solid fighter and that this is a very even matchup. Win or lose, finding this sort of value in a wagering proposition is how I’ve made money at this discipline for over 17 years now.

BET QUINTON “RAMPAGE” JACKSON +165 OVER CHUCK LIDDELL

See you later tonight for our round by round coverage of UFC 71.

More on Cro Cop v. Gonzaga from UFC 70

NOTE: I’ve corrected all of the references to “Gonzales” to the correct “Gonzaga”. This is what happens when you’re writing well past your bedtime and have been listening to NPR’s coverage about Attorney General Alberto Gonzales all day….

The latest news on Mirko Cro Cop’s condition following his shocking KO loss to Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 70 is still pretty good–he’s suffering from some swelling in his ankle and is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Tuesday. He’s walking under his own power with a slight limp, which is still a good sign considering that immediately following his KO it looked like his foot had been put on backwards. I haven’t heard any reports of a concussion but I can’t imagine that he not at least a little woozy following the high kick that left him unconscious.

Mirko has always had a reputation for having a “glass jaw” but I’ve always thought that this was somewhat unfair. He did suffer a few KO losses while fighting in K-1 but two of those were to Ernesto Hoost, who at the time was one of the best in the world. He also had a KO loss to Mike Bernardo, but that was the result of an injured leg. He did lose a fight he probably shouldn’t have to Michael McDonald by KO but that was his only K-1 stoppage that I consider to be even somewhat dubious. He suffered one KO loss in PRIDE, to Kevin Randleman in a devastating stoppage that is shown frequently on the syndicated highlight show (he did dominate Randleman in a rematch, winning in under a minute by tap out). Joe Rogan made the point on the UFC broadcast that Cro Cop’s head structure isn’t exactly one that lends itself to taking punches well with a fairly small head and a long neck (as opposed to a big thick head and short neck, like a James Toney). That may be true, but his career resume and physical build alone isn’t sufficient for me to brand him as having a “glass jaw”. Of course in MMA as in boxing, it doesn’t take much for a fighter to get that reputation–Mirko also has had a reputation for not defending submissions well despite only having one submission loss in his PRIDE/UFC career and that to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (who many consider the best submission fighter in the world).

I won’t go so far as saying that I “called” the Mirko loss, though I did give my clients a position on Gonzaga in the fight. That was based on wagering value alone–as a +425 dog the theoretical “breakeven” point was less than 20% and I figured that his chances of winning were at least twice that resulting in a nice overlay. In other words, I was handicapping the price more than I was the fight. This is something that serious sports handicappers (as opposed to the morons who scream about “locks” on scorephones and wave their arms around a lot on TV infomercials) do on a daily basis. Still, it was apparent heading into the bout that Gonzalez was no joke. You don’t become a world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu without knowing how to fight. Still, it was hard to evaluate just how good a fighter he is based on his career record heading into the Mirko fight. He had a 7-1 mark with his wins coming against unknowns and his only loss by TKO to Fabricio Werdum (the guy that Andrei Arlovski fought on Saturday and another former world BJJ champion. Ironically, he’s also Mirko’s groundfighting coach). I expected Gonzalez to be competitive, but I had no idea that he’d knock Mirko out with a high kick. If anyone tells you that they saw THAT coming they’re lying.

Prior to the KO kick, Gonzaga was controlling the fight. He took Mirko down and did a lot of damage on the ground with his fists and elbows (it was an elbow that opened up a cut near Mirko’s hairline). Mirko may have been a little woozy from his ground attack when Herb Dean stood them up (Dean is a good ref, but I’m still not sure why he called for the standup at that point). Since he entered the UFC there’s been some question about why he doesn’t train in a cage–he’s always maintained that the octagon doesn’t make a difference but its obvious that it does. In addition to the obvious difference in being against the ropes in a PRIDE ring and up against the cage in the UFC, what’s more significant for a striker like Cro Cop is the difficulty in “cutting off the ring”. It’s a lot harder when there aren’t any corners to back your opponent in to–this didn’t really show up in Mirko’s UFC debut against Eddie Sanchez, who was made to order for Cro Cop. Sanchez never came forward, and essentially backed up the whole time while Mirko peppered him with punches and kicks. Gonzalez came right at Mirko, and with the exception of a kick to the midsection that left a nasty welt Cro Cop never really landed a significant strike.

In his post fight comments, Mirko has essentially chalked this up as a Kevin Randleman redux and I have no reason to think otherwise. He’s in his early 30′s, so its not like he’s “over the hill” and his striking is on a short list of the best in the sport. Still, its apparent that he needs to do some work on his fighting tactics in order to compete at the highest level in the UFC. In his defense, the last thing that you expect to see when fighting a BJJ specialist is a high kick coming at your head. Long story short, I’m sure we haven’t seen the last of Cro Cop.

Much like the Matt Serra upset over GSP, however, it does throw the UFC’s short term plans into a bit of disarray. The plan was, obviously, for Cro Cop to win this fight to set up a championship match against Randy Couture later this summer. Now Gonzaga will likely be Couture’s opponent in his next defense. While that could very well be an interesting fight–Couture himself said on the broadcast that he’d rather fight Cro Cop who’d stand and trade with him than a monster BJJ fighter like Gonzaga –it definitely doesn’t have the box office appeal that a Cro Cop/Couture fight would have had. That fight could have been the most anticipated–and most financially successful–fight in UFC history. There was also talk of a fight between Mirko and current light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell in a matchup of two of the top strikers in the sport. Obviously Liddell has to deal with the considerable challenge of Quintin “Rampage” Jackson first, but a fight between the UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champions would have also done huge business. Now that, too, is on the back burner. The UFC does have Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria waiting in the wings–and for MMA purists a fight between “Minotauro” and Gonzaga would be fascinating–but he’s not “over” with the US fans to the extent he needs to be to really pump up those PPV numbers.

Later this week we’ll talk about what the recent wave of upsets in the MMA world means for UFC and PRIDE, as well as the implications for the future of the sport.

UFC Fight Night thoughts…

–Antoni Hardonk v. Justin McCully

Hardonk is a monstrous (6’4″ 240) Dutch kickboxer but at the same time has limited MMA experience (5-2 career) and hasn’t really fought anyone of any significance. He won his UFC debut against Sherman Pendergarst, who’s a journeyman at best. He lost his only fight in K-1 to an uninspiring opponent. Only other win against a name opponent was a win in ROTR over Wes Sims. Basically, he hasn’t beaten anyone outside of Europe which always scares me. Justin McCully is a big tough dude who’s better known for being part of Tito Ortiz’s entourage than anything else. He’s never really seriously dedicated himself to his own MMA career and took this fight on short notice when Frank Mir pulled out. Just can’t see how you can justify Hardonk as a -439 favorite in this spot–McCully is a tough, experienced guy and definitely has a better shot than the +399 price indicates.

–Thiago Tavares v. Naoyuki Kotani

Tavares is a highly regarded BJJ specialist making his UFC debut. He’s got a spotless 11-0 record compiled in second and third tier international organizations against sketchy opposition. Kotani is a veteran fighter who’s compiled a 17-5-5 record competing all over the world including some top organizations like PRIDE and RINGS. He probably wants to forget his only PRIDE appearance, however, where he became the answer to a trivia question in losing by TKO at the :11 second mark of the first round. He’s a better fighter than that, and brings some degree of desperation into this bout–a win here and he’s relevant again, a loss and he’ll be fighting in Holland. At +249 he’s also worth a shot.

–Kenny Florian v. Dokonjonosuke Mishima

The UFC loves Florian for some reason, though he’s never really impressed me as anything other than a tough guy with a lot of heart. He was dominated by Sean Sherk in his last fight at UFC 64. His other two losses have come to solid opposition (Diego Sanchez and Drew Fickett) but he’s never really beaten anyone impressive IMO. Mishima is another veteran fighter out of Japan with a lot of experience in PRIDE and Shooto. Other than his more “recognizable” name not sure why Florian is favored here. Well worth a shot on Mishima +189.

–Wilson Gouveia v. Seth Petruzelli

Seth Petruzelli is a tough guy, but I don’t think he’s got a clue how to defend against BJJ black belt Gouvia. Making matters worse for Petruzelli is that Gouvia is a good standup fighter as well. Not interested in laying the price on Gouveia, but also can’t see Petruzelli beating such a technically skilled and well rounded fighter. Gouveia by submission.

–Drew Fickett v. Keita “K-Taro” Nakamura

Similar matchup to Florian v. Mishima…..Nakamura is a tough, experienced fighter with only one career loss (that by decision). Fickett is a tough guy, but has problems finishing fights. Nakamura worth the shot at +139

Not familiar enough with the fighters on the rest of the card to have an opinion but in cases like this hard to argue with the underdog. I’m thinking if you played dogs across the board you’d do OK with the exception of the Gouveia/Petruzelli fight…

Good wagering value on Saturday’s UFC card…

As most of you probably know, I’m a sports handicapper in my day job. I haven’t officially released this to my clients yet but I definitely will. I don’t have much interest in either side of the main event–Matt Serra is tempting at the huge (+890 at Pinnacle) price but GSP is a monster. You can’t stand with him, and you can’t beat him on the ground. The guy doesn’t really have a weakness. With the possible exception of Russian fighting god Fedor Emelianenko he may be the best “pound for pound” MMA fighter in the world at this time.

The semi-final matchup between Josh Koscheck and Diego Sanchez looks attractive from a wagering standpoint. Koscheck +178 looks like a hell of a value. At best, this probably should be a “pick’em” fight and I’d even make Koscheck a small favorite.

More on the wagering aspects of this weekend’s MMA cards once the lines are posted…