ProphetFighting

Pacquiao/Marquez fight analysis at The Sweet Science

I’ve got an analysis of the Pacquiao/Marquez fight up over at The Sweet Science:

This should be a great fight and from a wagering perspective the value afforded by taking Marquez at +185 is definitely attractive. That notwithstanding, I’m of the opinion that the most likely outcome will be a Pacquiao decision victory.

There’s a strange dynamic at play in this fight as Marquez almost seems overconfident based on what transpired in the first meeting. That’s almost counter-intuitive based on the fact that Marquez very nearly didn’t make it out of the first round, but from the tone in his prefight comments it’s almost as if he thinks he’s got Pacquiao “figured out”. I’m not suggesting that Marquez is underestimating Pacquiao, but I get the vibe that he may think that by executing the same fight plan he did in rounds 2 through 12 four years ago he’ll outbox his opponent en route to a decision win.

Jim’s take on Pacquiao/Marquez @ The Sweet Science

I’ll be doing the round by round on Pacquiao/Marquez over at On205th.com

Live round by round of Pacquiao/Marquez @ on205th.com

[tags]boxing, Juan Manuel Marquez, Manny Pacquiao, The Sweet Science[/tags]

Kelly Pavlik/Jermain Taylor result

I only saw the 12th round so I can’t comment further, but Kelly Pavlik just won the rematch with Jermain Taylor by unanimous decision. I’ll have the judges scores momentarily but I’m hoping that’s a close UD since every comment I got during the fight said it was “too close to call”. Again, I’ll reserve judgment until I watch the replay but the scores are:

117-111, 115-113, 116-112

[tags]boxing, Jermain Taylor, Kelly Pavlik [/tags]

Mayweather/Hatton replay Saturday on HBO

HBO will broadcast a replay on the Floyd Mayweather/Ricky Hatton fight this Saturday night at 10:15 PM EST. Worth watching if you didn’t catch it the first time around…

HBO to show Hatton/Mayweather replay

[tags]boxing, HBO, Floyd Mayweather, Ricky Hatton[/tags]

Boxing notes including Cotto/Mosley

On the Mosely/Cotto undercard Joel Casamayor defended his interim lightweight title with a split decision win over Jose Armando Santa Cruz. Aussie featherweight Billy Dib also won on the undercard. Cotto and Mosely now going at it in the 11th round of a *very* entertaining fight at Madison Square Garden. I haven’t been scoring since I’ve been covering the MMA but from what I’ve seen it looks damn close. Definitely a fight worth watching from start to finish. Fight is over now and its up to the judges. ESPN is calling it for Cotto. I love MMA, but in hindsight I should have Tivo’d the Elite XC to cover the Cotto/Mosley boxing match live. Possible “match of the year” here….of course the mainstream sports media will ignore it since it contradicts their “boxing sucks now” meme. If you’ve been with me for awhile you’ve heard it all before but note that the mainstream sports media loves to cover it anytime that Mike Tyson commits a crime or does something stupid so they can balefully shake their heads and proclaim boxing dead. And then they’ll ignore all of the Gatti/Wards, Morales/Barrera, Pacquiao/Castillo–and now Mosley/Cotto fights since it runs in diametric opposition to their uneducated “take”. Cotto wins by unanimous decision, but all of the judging margins were very close, with two of the three judges scoring it 115-113 Cotto, the other 116-113 for the Puerto Rican fighter. Just a great fight so don’t miss it when HBO replays it next weekend…

[tags]boxing, HBO, Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto[/tags]

Dana White conference call with news on Fedor, Brandon Vera, Tim Sylvia…

The Wrestling Observer is reporting on a Dana White conference call today. The biggest news out of it involves not Fedor, but Brandon Vera who has reportedly signed a new deal with Zuffa. According to White, Vera will be fighting Tim Sylvia in his next fight most likely on the scheduled 10/20 event in Cincinnati. White talked about Fedor some, though he didn’t really say anything new other than his plan is to have him face the reigning UFC champion in a “unification match” in his first fight in. You can read a lot into that including that White will be making things easier for the reigning UFC champ (since it’ll be Fedor’s first fight in a cage) and that they further plan to “bury” the PRIDE brand. Why they’re so anxious to do that after spending $65 million on the promotion is beyond me. Nothing new about Fedor’s contractual status that we haven’t reported here–the UFC is offering more money but wants exclusivity (eg: no Combat Sambo), no “creative control” on how he’s used and no guaranteed gravy train for his Red Devil Fight Team cohorts. Actually I’ve heard that the “gravy train” isn’t a huge issue for either party.

Another scenario that White eluded to is that this whole thing could be a “CYA” position should Fedor sign elsewhere. That lets the UFC say with a straight face that Fedor was offered a “unification fight” and turned it down. Not sure why they care about having a “CYA” story anyway, but it at least allows them to “save face” should Fedor sign with K-1/Heroes.

White also suggested that the long discussed deal with HBO would be signed by the end of the year, with the first UFC event on the network taking place early next year. He did accept blame for bungling the negotiations to this point.

Full story here

[tags]UFC, MMA, mixed martial arts, Brandon Vera, Tim Sylvia, Dana White, HBO, Fedor Emelianenko[/tags]

Best KO of the year so far….

Not sure how long the copyright cops at YouTube will let this stay up so watch it while you can–my vote for the best boxing KO of the year so far took place on HBO’s World Championship boxing as Kermit Cintron stopped Walter Matthysse in the 2nd round of their fight on the undercard of the Arturo Gatti/Alfonso Gomez bout (7/14/07). Matthysse wanted to take the fight to Cintron early, and it didn’t work out too well for him. I like to think I’m an eloquent guy, but words just can’t do this knockout justice…

[tags]boxing, HBO, knockout, KO, boxing, Kermit Cintron, Walter Matthysse, Arturo Gatti, Alfonzo Gomez[/tags]

Arturo Gatti KO’d by Alfonso Gomez, retires from boxing

Arturo Gatti was KO’d by Alfonso Gomez Saturday night and announced his retirement from boxing after the bout.

Arturo Gatti’s career came to a painful and bloody end when he was battered by Alfonso Gomez and stopped in the seventh round Saturday night.

Fighting at 147 pounds proved to be too much for the two-time world champion, who failed in his bid to regain his place among boxing’s top fighters.

“Hasta la vista, baby,” the 35-year-old Gatti told HBO as blood flowed from his cut lip. “I can’t be taking this abuse anymore.”

A stunned crowd of 9,648 looked on with a mix of surprise and sadness as Gomez punished his former idol. The final round was especially painful for Gatti and his fans who had witnessed so many previous travails and triumphs.

“I’m coming back … as a spectator,” Gatti told Main Events president Kathy Duva in his dressing room. “I’m retired.”

Obviously Gatti will be remembered for being one of boxing’s toughest and most determined warriors. His three fight trilogy against Mickey Ward will go down in history as a classic, as will the 9th round of their first fight. That round gets my vote for the best in the history of the sport, and certainly the best of my lifetime. When I want to introduce newbies to the glory of the sweet science, watching the video of Gatti/Ward I–and particularly that amazing 9th round–usually does the trick. It also demonstrated what a great announcer Jim Lampley is, and his call of that round is what sets it apart from another all-time great round of recent vintage–the 10th round of the first fight between Diego Corrales and Jose Luis Castillo. Lampley’s excitement in his call is a great accompaniment to the toughness and heart of both Gatti and Ward and amazes me since every time I watch that round I’m rendered speechless (and I’m seldom at a loss for words). Probably the right time for him to hang up the gloves but he’ll definitely be missed inside the ropes. Arturo Gatti personified everything that is great about boxing, and I wish him a long and happy life and a prosperous post-fighting career.

Full story here

[tags]Arturo Gatti, Alfonso Gomez, Mickey Ward, HBO, boxing, Jim Lampley[/tags]

The Prophet looks at Klitschko/Brewster II

I had some technical problems this past weekend (my laptop screen broke) which has left me behind the 8 ball somewhat in keeping things up to date. It’s fixed now, so I’ll be posting my thoughts on this fight as well as the UFC 73 PPV.

The resurrection of heavyweight Wladimir Klitschko under the tutledge of Emmanuel Steward continued this past Saturday as he avenged his 2004 TKO loss to Lamon Brewster in front of a crowd of enthusiastic Euros in Koln, Germany. Like the previous meeting, Klitschko dominated out of the gate but unlike last time–where Wlad gassed midway through the fight, after which he claimed he was “poisoned”–a more efficient performance by the Ukranian heavyweight allowed him to coast to an almost effortless win.

The biggest difference between Wlad 2004 and the current model is his efficiency and conditioning. In his previous incarnation, he’d come out of the gate swinging for the fences and trying to end it early. If he didn’t, he’d frequently tire as the fight wore on. The combination of improved cardio and a less frenetic workrate has worked wonders. Furthermore, Manny Steward–who trained Lennox Lewis at his prime–has taught Klitschko to take advantage of his height (he’s 6′ 6 1/2″) by establishing and maintaining spacing to allow his powerful left jab to be used to devastating effect. Steward has had considerable success leveraging the height of taller fighters in the past–in addition to the last undisputed heavyweight champ in Lewis he also worked with a freakishly tall and rangy welterweight you may have heard of named Thomas Hearns. Watching Wlad on Saturday I kept thinking how much he’s fighting like the aforementioned Lennox Lewis, and one of the HBO announce team (can’t remember if it was Lamps or Larry Merchant) suggested as much. Lewis himself–who was working the broadcast–quickly said that “there’s only one Lennox Lewis” before agreeing that he was following the Steward blueprint perfectly. The quick witted Lampley also observed that Lewis had been in the ring with both Klitschko brothers–against Vitaly in Lewis’ last professional fight, where he lost despite fighting bravely due to the fact that his eyeball was hanging out of the socket. He was “in the ring” for a few minutes against Wlad in the George Clooney/Brad Pitt remake of “Oceans Eleven”.

One looming question remains about Wladimir Klitschko–his chin. Steward has claimed in the past that Wlad’s chin is fine, and that when he was knocked out in the past it was due to fatigue caused by poor conditioning. Hard to tell if that’s just Steward trying to pump up his fighter or whether he’s right. All I know is that whenever Wlad has been in a brawl it hasn’t worked out well for him. More recently, he put on a boxing clinic in decisioning the hardest hitter he’s faced in some time–the “Nigerian Nightmare” Sam Peter. Of course Peter has very limited boxing skills and it was only a matter of time before he came up against a superior tactician that would expose this fact. As long as Wlad is able to fight “his” fight it might not be a concern, but to be a complete fighter I’m of the opinion that you have to be able to compete when you’re forced into a fight style not to your liking.

Wlad’s salvation might be the current crop of heavyweights–there’s just not a lot of good boxer/punchers out there at the moment and he’s simply the best technical boxer in the division at the moment. He has a good chance of boxing his way to a unified heavyweight crown. Unless a hard hitter with good boxing skills comes on to the scene soon its hard to see guys like Ruslan Chageav or Oleg Maskaev giving him much trouble.

The other notable takeaway from Saturday’s Klitschko/Brewster fight was the first rate performance of Brewster’s trainer, Buddy McGirt. Before the 7th round he “pulled the plug” and threw in the towel for his fighter. It was evident from the between round commentary that Brewster wasn’t able to execute the fight plan they had worked on and McGirt wasn’t going to let him absorb more of a beating than he had to. In light of the fact that Brewster was fighting with a surgically repaired retina, this is a decision that McGirt should be praised for.

[tags]boxing, HBO, Jim Lampley, Buddy McGirt, Wladimir Klitschko, Vitaly Klitschko, Lamon Brewster, Lennox Lewis [/tags]

Dana White’s conference call…PRIDE, Tito, HBO and other (f-bomb) topics

UFC President Dana “F-Bomb” White had a conference call last week to promote the [tag]UFC 73: Stacked[/tag]PPV to be held Saturday night from Sacto. The Orange County Fishwrap posted a full transcript of the call which you can read here. Below are my thoughts on several of the topics…er….several of the (f-bomb) topics that Dana (f-bomb) White addressed…and that’s no (BS).

On the war of words between [tag]Tito Ortiz[/tag] and [tag]Rashad Evans[/tag]:

“I mean, it’s typical Tito stuff. Tito always starts a fight before the fight. It started at … I don’t even remember what [tag]UFC[/tag] it was, but he came over and got in Rashad’s face and I’m sure it’s escalated from there.”

Yeah, typical Tito as is the “nappy headed ho” blast we reported on several days ago. Tito and White don’t get along, so don’t be fooled by his measured response here. He’ll blow up Tito later in the call.

On Tito Ortiz’s image and whether he is misunderstood sometimes:

“(Laughs) No. Tito is not misunderstood. I’ve had my dealings with Tito over the last six years. Tito is who he is. You know the history with me and Tito. He doesn’t call himself the ‘Huntington Beach Bad Boy’ for no reason.”

On whether Tito’s image is good for the UFC or not:

“I don’t ask anybody to not be who they are. You know, this isn’t the WWE. Different guys have different personalities. Tito is who he is. Tito comes in and Tito always gets in great shape. He comes in and fights. Do I like all of things he says and all of the things he does? No. I’m not crazy about it most of the time. But Tito is who he is. I’m not going to go ask Tito to not be Tito Ortiz.”

On whether Tito has changed over the years:

“He’s always been like that, but I think he’s matured a lot. I think Tito has matured as a person and as a fighter, definitely. I don’t always see eye-to-eye with him, but, yeah, I think he has.”

On Tito’s personality:

“How would I describe Tito’s personality? You are asking a guy that doesn’t get along with him 90 percent of the time. I don’t know. Tito is who Tito is, you know. I’m sure he feels the same way about me.”

No doubt Dana loved answering so many questions about Tito….he did say some interesting things about the status of PRIDE:

On the future of PRIDE and if it will be back:

“There are always rumors out there. I always say exactly what’s going on about this company and what we’re doing. If I don’t say it, it’s probably not happening. As far as [tag]PRIDE[/tag], we need to get these guys some fights, right now, so we can figure this thing out. They went out of business for a reason because that company is a mess. We’re trying to figure it out and fix it. We’ve got a lot going on, right now, with the UFC and opening our offices over in the U.K., getting over into Europe next year. So it’s going to take us some time to figure this thing out. It’s a lot more complicated and a lot more messed up than we thought it was. PRIDE is a very powerful brand and I loved the Super Bowl thing, so I don’t know. I honestly couldn’t answer that question, right now. We bought it with the intention of running it, but it is a seriously messed up company. So we’re trying to figure it out.”

From everything I’ve heard the contractual situation between [tag]Dreamstage[/tag] and their fighters was the real mess. [tag]Josh Barnett [/tag]said as much in his blog post announcing his return to pro wrestling. Of course the Fertitas should have known this going in, and I’d be very surprised if they didn’t–its called “due diligence” in the financial world. My personal take is that PRIDE is on the “back burner” now, and that’s due to management decision on the part of the Fertitas and the other relevant players. Right now the UFC is in a situation where “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. As the hottest sports brand in the US, if not the world, they’re basically guaranteed of turning a profit anything they throw up an octagon and sell tickets. Their move into the European market has been successful as well. So not only are they spread pretty thin at the moment, business is going very well right now doing what they’re doing. In other words, in my estimation they’re going to wait and re-introduce the PRIDE brand when the business needs a “pop”.

While I’m sure the PRIDE situation is something of a mess, the UFC could be making a bet that the big name fighters associated with PRIDE don’t have any real competitive options. Sure, they could pay the bills taking Calvin Ayre’s BoDog money or do what Josh Barnett has done and get back into pro wrestling, but clearly the UFC is the pinnacle of MMA competition at the moment. This risk could easily backfire–particularly if Elite XC and their affiliated groups continue to gain traction. The [tag]Strikeforce/Elite XC[/tag] show held on 6/22 has been hailed as the best MMA card of the year so far, and gave them a couple of marketable stars in a resurgent Frank Shamrock and the Vietnamese-American technical wizardry of [tag]Cung Le[/tag]. They’ve already got the marquee name in women’s MMA, [tag]Gina Carano[/tag] plus have recently signed PRIDE’s most promising star of the future in the person of [tag]Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou[/tag]. Clearly the UFC is still the dominant brand in the sport by a wide margin, but Elite XC certainly has momentum. We’ll discuss the longterm prospects of the upstart group in a future post.

UFC’s biggest problem at the moment, at least in my opinion, is a glut of events that could result in some over saturation not only of their specific product but of MMA as a sport. One advantage of getting PRIDE back up and running ASAP is that it could be run (and should be run) as a unique entity–its held in a ring, plus has a uniquely Japanese identity. This would allow PRIDE to keep their fighters busy, while presenting a product that is markedly different than the UFC brand. Another organization with its own champions and challengers would allow them to keep more fighters under contract (and thus out of the hands of their competitors) while presenting a greater number of meaningful fights. This would be a win/win for both the Fertitas/UFC, the fighters and the sport as a whole.

On the rumor that the [tag]HBO[/tag] deal is dead and whether there are any new talks with [tag]Spike TV[/tag] or ESPN:

“You guys have some (bad) sources. The HBO deal is far from dead. No, we never said we were doing a PRIDE event in California in June. Yeah, we have a lot of television. Every year, I pride myself on … every year we’ve taken this thing to another level. This year is no different. Wait until you see what we’re working on, right now. We keep breaking records and we keep blowing people’s minds and we’re going to continue to. The things we’re working on, right now, are going to rock the entire industry again.”

The point of contention in the HBO deal is control of production–HBO wants to cover it “in house”, essentially the same way they do with boxing. The UFC, meanwhile, wants to control the production including hiring of announcers. This is a case where the UFC would be better served in the longterm giving up some control of their product. First of all, the HBO boxing production is first rate and having them present the UFC and MMA would help legitimize the sport in the eyes of skeptics. Furthermore, having the sport viewed through “fresh eyes” would present it from a new perspective and help minimize the “glut” that I spoke of above and the feel of “sameness” that the UFC wants to avoid. While I understand the UFC wanting to at least put their own announcers in the HBO broadcasts, IMO they’d be well served just insisting on some input in the hiring process. Given the high quality of HBO’s boxing announcing team–with top guys Jim Lampley and Larry Merchant considered the gold standard of the sport–their track record justifies giving them more control in the process then the UFC affords SPIKE TV. Which leads us to another White comment from the conference call:

On the rumors that production and announce team being the problems with the HBO deal:

“To be honest with you, I’m not fighting with them about any of that stuff. I think the deal is coming along. I think we are right about there.”

Everything I’ve heard indicates that the production of the show is entirely the source of the impasse between the two sides.

On the UFC terminating the final fight on Ken Shamrock’s contract:

“Yeah, and I know Ken Shamrock is flipping out saying, ‘Dana thinks he’s this,’ and, ‘Dana thinks he’s that.’ Listen, Ken Shamrock has lost every fight but one that he’s had in the UFC, OK. This has nothing to do with him personally. I like Ken Shamrock. If I saw Ken Shamrock tomorrow, I’d say hello to him and see how his family is doing. You know, Ken Shamrock needs to think about retiring. It’s one of those things where I don’t even know, actually, it would be stupid of me to say that. I was thinking about saying it would probably be hard for a commission to sanction him for a fight, but Kimbo Slice and what’s his name … Ray Mercer just fought, so I guess that’s probably not true. Ken has lost every fight he’s had in the UFC but one since he’s come back with us. He’s just not at that level anymore. He’s not at the level of a UFC fighter.”

I agree that Shamrock is no longer at the level of a UFC fighter, but Dana would do well to read my commentary on Kimbo Slice. He’s already a more credible fighter than many of the lower tier UFC guys. As for Mercer, even though he’s somewhat “long in the tooth” he’s a legit former world heavyweight boxing champion. I agree with the UFC’s decision to cut Shamrock loose (though I’d imagine that the real reason was the belief that they’ve gotten all of the revenue out of him that they can) but Kimbo/Mercer is a bad comparison.

On Frank Shamrock’s performance against Phil Baroni:

“He won the fight. I think [tag]Frank Shamrock[/tag]is going to fight a lot of guys that aren’t top contenders. That’s what you are going to see with Frank Shamrock. But, again, you are asking somebody that is very biased. I can’t stand that guy. He is an idiot.”

Part of Dana’s “charm” is his willingness to say what he thinks, and I pretty much agree with him on his assessment of Shamrock. I don’t agree with the bit about him fighting guys that “aren’t top contenders”. Baroni may not be the top guy at his weight, but he’s a dangerous striker and a tough matchup for anyone and Shamrock dominated him. Assuming that his injured knee heals up, Shamrock is certainly capable of providing a credible challenge to anyone. Of course he won’t be fighting the “top contenders” in the UFC simply because Dana thinks he’s an “idiot” but there will still be plenty of good fights for Shamrock elsewhere.

Full story here

[tags]Dana White, MMA, mixed martial arts, Ken Shamrock, Calvin Ayre, BoDog Fight[/tags]

Kimbo to party with Hollywood celebs & Suicide Girls?

That didn’t take long…in the span of 48 hours Kimbo Slice–who’s future prospects in MMA we discussed at great length yesterday–has gone from fighting bouncers in ghetto parking lots on YouTube to apparently living the life you’d expect from Vinnie Chase on HBO’s “Entourage”. In the role of “Queens Boulevard” director Billy Walsh we have Courtney Solomon, producer of the forthcoming film “Captivity”. According to yesterday’s NYT fishwrap, the premier party for the film is going to include torture rooms, the alterna-porn hotties known as the Suicide Girls *and* none other than Kimbo Slice–I added the emphasis on the relevant info in the quote below:

For starters, Mr. Solomon has ordered up what he calls the three “most outlandish” SuicideGirls available from the punk porn service, even if they’re as frisky as the ones he is told once set a Portland, Ore., restaurant on fire. Some lucky fans will get to take the women as dates for party night, July 10, on two conditions: “People take the date at their own risk, and everybody on the Internet gets to watch.”

Cage fighting too is likely. Mr. Solomon’s planners are angling for Kimbo Slice, the bare-knuckle bruiser whose vicious backyard brawls are a Web favorite and who made his Mixed Martial Arts debut on Saturday.

But the warren of live torture rooms is a must. As Mr. Solomon envisions it, individuals in torture gear will wander through the West Hollywood club Privilege grabbing partygoers. All of which is a prelude to an undisclosed main event that, he warned last week over slices of pizza a few doors from his company’s new offices on the Sunset Strip, is “probably not legal.”

Full story here