ProphetFighting

More on Cro Cop v. Gonzaga from UFC 70

NOTE: I’ve corrected all of the references to “Gonzales” to the correct “Gonzaga”. This is what happens when you’re writing well past your bedtime and have been listening to NPR’s coverage about Attorney General Alberto Gonzales all day….

The latest news on Mirko Cro Cop’s condition following his shocking KO loss to Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 70 is still pretty good–he’s suffering from some swelling in his ankle and is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Tuesday. He’s walking under his own power with a slight limp, which is still a good sign considering that immediately following his KO it looked like his foot had been put on backwards. I haven’t heard any reports of a concussion but I can’t imagine that he not at least a little woozy following the high kick that left him unconscious.

Mirko has always had a reputation for having a “glass jaw” but I’ve always thought that this was somewhat unfair. He did suffer a few KO losses while fighting in K-1 but two of those were to Ernesto Hoost, who at the time was one of the best in the world. He also had a KO loss to Mike Bernardo, but that was the result of an injured leg. He did lose a fight he probably shouldn’t have to Michael McDonald by KO but that was his only K-1 stoppage that I consider to be even somewhat dubious. He suffered one KO loss in PRIDE, to Kevin Randleman in a devastating stoppage that is shown frequently on the syndicated highlight show (he did dominate Randleman in a rematch, winning in under a minute by tap out). Joe Rogan made the point on the UFC broadcast that Cro Cop’s head structure isn’t exactly one that lends itself to taking punches well with a fairly small head and a long neck (as opposed to a big thick head and short neck, like a James Toney). That may be true, but his career resume and physical build alone isn’t sufficient for me to brand him as having a “glass jaw”. Of course in MMA as in boxing, it doesn’t take much for a fighter to get that reputation–Mirko also has had a reputation for not defending submissions well despite only having one submission loss in his PRIDE/UFC career and that to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (who many consider the best submission fighter in the world).

I won’t go so far as saying that I “called” the Mirko loss, though I did give my clients a position on Gonzaga in the fight. That was based on wagering value alone–as a +425 dog the theoretical “breakeven” point was less than 20% and I figured that his chances of winning were at least twice that resulting in a nice overlay. In other words, I was handicapping the price more than I was the fight. This is something that serious sports handicappers (as opposed to the morons who scream about “locks” on scorephones and wave their arms around a lot on TV infomercials) do on a daily basis. Still, it was apparent heading into the bout that Gonzalez was no joke. You don’t become a world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu without knowing how to fight. Still, it was hard to evaluate just how good a fighter he is based on his career record heading into the Mirko fight. He had a 7-1 mark with his wins coming against unknowns and his only loss by TKO to Fabricio Werdum (the guy that Andrei Arlovski fought on Saturday and another former world BJJ champion. Ironically, he’s also Mirko’s groundfighting coach). I expected Gonzalez to be competitive, but I had no idea that he’d knock Mirko out with a high kick. If anyone tells you that they saw THAT coming they’re lying.

Prior to the KO kick, Gonzaga was controlling the fight. He took Mirko down and did a lot of damage on the ground with his fists and elbows (it was an elbow that opened up a cut near Mirko’s hairline). Mirko may have been a little woozy from his ground attack when Herb Dean stood them up (Dean is a good ref, but I’m still not sure why he called for the standup at that point). Since he entered the UFC there’s been some question about why he doesn’t train in a cage–he’s always maintained that the octagon doesn’t make a difference but its obvious that it does. In addition to the obvious difference in being against the ropes in a PRIDE ring and up against the cage in the UFC, what’s more significant for a striker like Cro Cop is the difficulty in “cutting off the ring”. It’s a lot harder when there aren’t any corners to back your opponent in to–this didn’t really show up in Mirko’s UFC debut against Eddie Sanchez, who was made to order for Cro Cop. Sanchez never came forward, and essentially backed up the whole time while Mirko peppered him with punches and kicks. Gonzalez came right at Mirko, and with the exception of a kick to the midsection that left a nasty welt Cro Cop never really landed a significant strike.

In his post fight comments, Mirko has essentially chalked this up as a Kevin Randleman redux and I have no reason to think otherwise. He’s in his early 30′s, so its not like he’s “over the hill” and his striking is on a short list of the best in the sport. Still, its apparent that he needs to do some work on his fighting tactics in order to compete at the highest level in the UFC. In his defense, the last thing that you expect to see when fighting a BJJ specialist is a high kick coming at your head. Long story short, I’m sure we haven’t seen the last of Cro Cop.

Much like the Matt Serra upset over GSP, however, it does throw the UFC’s short term plans into a bit of disarray. The plan was, obviously, for Cro Cop to win this fight to set up a championship match against Randy Couture later this summer. Now Gonzaga will likely be Couture’s opponent in his next defense. While that could very well be an interesting fight–Couture himself said on the broadcast that he’d rather fight Cro Cop who’d stand and trade with him than a monster BJJ fighter like Gonzaga –it definitely doesn’t have the box office appeal that a Cro Cop/Couture fight would have had. That fight could have been the most anticipated–and most financially successful–fight in UFC history. There was also talk of a fight between Mirko and current light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell in a matchup of two of the top strikers in the sport. Obviously Liddell has to deal with the considerable challenge of Quintin “Rampage” Jackson first, but a fight between the UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champions would have also done huge business. Now that, too, is on the back burner. The UFC does have Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria waiting in the wings–and for MMA purists a fight between “Minotauro” and Gonzaga would be fascinating–but he’s not “over” with the US fans to the extent he needs to be to really pump up those PPV numbers.

Later this week we’ll talk about what the recent wave of upsets in the MMA world means for UFC and PRIDE, as well as the implications for the future of the sport.

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