ProphetFighting

More EliteXC MMA betting advice at BetWWX

I’ve got another underdog play on Saturday’s EliteXC card with analysis up at BetWWX :

Like virtually all serious sports wagering, betting MMA is all about finding value. If you bet on “undervalued” fighters and against “overvalued” fighters over the long run you’ll make money. The biggest mistake that neophyte sports gamblers make is thinking that serious handicapping is all about teams, players, injuries and matchups. The reality is that those are simply components of what serious sports handicapping is really about: it’s all about numbers.

The beautiful thing about betting moneyline underdogs is that you drastically lower the breakeven percentage you need to surpass in order to show a profit. Most people understand the basics of the breakeven percentage—at +100 (even money) if you win more than 50% of your wagers you’ll show a profit. If you’re laying the 11/10 (-110) required for most pointspread wagers you need to win more than 52.4% of the time to stay in the black. Nevertheless, its funny how many “chalk eaters” who’ll gladly throw down -200 or more on what they perceive to be a “sure thing” don’t understand this concept. If you’re betting a -200 favorite you have to win more than 66.7% of the time to turn a profit. That’s why when you make the decision to “lay the wood” you need to make damn sure you’re getting quality for the “high price” you’re paying.

Go to BetWWX to read the rest…

Jim’s MMA Plays on Saturday Night’s Elite XC MMA Part 2 @ BetWWX.com

[tags]MMA, mixed martial arts, EliteXC, BetWWX, sports betting, MMA betting, free plays, sports betting tips, betting advice, ProphetFighting[/tags]

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