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UFC 104 Main Card Quick Picks

UFC 104 has some interesting match ups with some enticing lines for those who seek to wager some cash on underdogs.

Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio Shogun Rua
*Bias alert! I’m a huge Shogun mark, so let’s get that out of the way immediately. However, there is some UFC hype built into this line. It is my belief that an in shape Shogun can beat anyone in the division. More specifically, if Shogun can counter with some vicious leg kicks early on Machida’s plant leg, he can slow Machida down and mitigate some of the effectiveness of his attack. Then, he would be able to engage in the clinch and hopefully get the fight to the ground. As opposed to his fight with Tito Ortiz, Machida undoubtedly has been training to combat submissions, but many overlook Shogun’s ground skills. I think that the book makers have built into the line an assumption that if Machida is able to drag the fight into the later rounds, Shogun will gas. That may be true, but there is little doubt that the UFC’s branding of the champ as “unbeatable” has inflated the line as well. I’m putting some money down on Shogun, but if you put a gun against my head and told me to pick, I’d probably go with Machida.

Cain Velasquez vs Ben Rothwell
This fight is a great example of how UFC hype can distort a line. On one hand, you have the 6-0 Velasquez who has a big win over Cheik Kongo, and on the other you have the 30-6 Rothwell who is remembered most for a loss to Andrei Arlovski. Velasquez is the big favorite, but I don’t see why. Arlovski is probably the best boxer in the heavyweight division and he showed it against Rothwell; Ben will not be threatened in the same way with Velasquez. Could Velasquez take him down and pound him out? Sure. But it’s far from guaranteed. This fight is closer to a tossup than a rout and I’m leaning towards Rothwell leaving Dana White pouting while hurting and eventually out-pointing Velasquez.

Anthony Johnson vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida
I can’t argue with the line here: “Rumble” should overwhelm Yoshida with his power; looking for a second round TKO with Yoshida showing his heart and recuperative abilities in the first.

Spencer Fisher vs Joe Stevenson
Stevenson is the favorite here and that makes sense considering his last performance against Nate Diaz. Greg Jackson works wonders for his fighters, particularly those who need to tweak their games. Joe should be able to control Fisher and avoid his submission attempts from the bottom to ride out a unanimous decision.

Josh Neer vs Gleison Tibau
I’d say I like “The Dentist” here, but I hate going to the dentist, so I’ll just say I like Neer to win. However, this fight has all the signs of a decision as Tibau should be able to avoid submission attempts.

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